Identifying risk and prognostic factors for synchronous liver metastasis in small bowel adenocarcinoma: a predictive analysis using the SEER database

Background: Small bowel adenocarcinoma (SBA) is a rare gastrointestinal malignancy with an increasing incidence and a high propensity for liver metastasis (LM). This study aimed to investigate the risk factors for synchronous LM and prognostic factors in patients with LM. Methods: Utilizing the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, this study analyzed data from 2,064 patients diagnosed with SBA between 2010 and 2020. Logistic regression was used to determine risk factors for synchronous LM. A nomogram was developed to predict the risk of LM in SBA patients, and its predictive performance was assessed through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were conducted to evaluate survival outcomes for SBA patients with LM. Results: Synchronous LM was present in 13.4% of SBA patients (n = 276). Six independent predictive factors for LM were identified, including tumor location, T stage, N stage, surgical intervention, retrieval of regional lymph nodes (RORLN), and chemotherapy. The nomogram demonstrated good discriminative ability, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 83.8%. Patients with LM had significantly lower survival rates than those without LM (P < 0.001). Survival analysis revealed that advanced age, tumor location in the duodenum, surgery, RORLN and chemotherapy were associated with cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with LM originating from SBA. Conclusions: This study highlights the significant impact of LM on the survival of SBA patients and identifies key risk factors for its occurrence. The developed nomogram aids in targeted screening and personalized treatment planning.