An Innovative Production Prediction Model for Fractured Horizontal Wells in Low-Permeability Gas Reservoirs Accounting for Proppant Embedment

This study focuses on addressing the challenge of accurately calculating the production caused by stress sensitivity and proppant embedment during actual production in low-permeability gas reservoirs. To achieve this, a stress sensitivity model in the matrix zone and a proppant embedding model in the fracture area are established. Additionally, fluid flow models are formulated for the matrix zone and fracture area based on the seepage theory and fluid mechanics. Using these models, a production prediction model is developed for fractured horizontal wells in low-permeability tight sandstone gas reservoirs considering the impact of proppant embedment. The production prediction model is solved using a coupling solution method, and the calculation results are verified against actual gas production. This study also analyses and discusses the stress sensitivity in low-permeability gas reservoirs, the factors influencing conductivity, and the factors influencing productivity. The results indicate a strong stress sensitivity in the matrix area of low-permeability gas reservoirs. In fracturing design, comprehensive consideration of fracture parameters is necessary. After fracturing, the optimal selection of proppants with appropriate particle sizes and careful optimization of the number of layers are crucial for maintaining stable production release. This research is significant for effectively and stably maximizing the productivity of low-permeability gas reservoirs.