Association of Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate Trajectories with Atrial Fibrillation Risk in Populations with Normal or Mildly Impaired Renal Function

Introduction: The association between the longitudinal patterns of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in populations with normal or mildly impaired renal function is not well characterized. We sought to explore the eGFR trajectories in populations with normal or mildly impaired renal function and their association with AF. Methods: This prospective cohort study included 62,407 participants who were free of AF, cardiovascular diseases, and moderate to severe renal insufficiency (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) before 2010. The eGFR trajectories were developed using latent mixture modeling based on examination data in 2006, 2008, and 2010. Incident AF cases were identified in biennial electrocardiogram assessment and a review of medical insurance data and discharge registers. We used Cox regression models to estimate the hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident AF. Results: According to survey results for the range and changing pattern of eGFR during 2006-2010, four trajectories were identified: high-stable (range, 107.47-110.25 mL/min/1.73 m(2); n = 11,719), moderate-increasing (median increase from 83.83 to 100.37 mL/min/1.73 m(2); n = 22,634), high-decreasing (median decrease from 101.72 to 89.10 mL/min/1.73 m(2); n = 7,943), and low-stable (range, 73.48-76.78 mL/min/1.73 m(2); n = 20,111). After an average follow-up of 9.63 years, a total of 485 cases of AF were identified. Compared with the high-stable trajectory, the adjusted hazard ratios of AF were 1.70 (95% CI, 1.09-2.66) for the moderate-increasing trajectory, 1.92 (95% CI, 1.18-3.13) for the high-decreasing trajectory, and 2.28 (95% CI, 1.46-3.56) for the low-stable trajectory. The results remained consistent across a number of sensitivity analyses. Conclusion: The trajectories of eGFR were associated with subsequent AF risk in populations with normal or mildly impaired renal function.