Predictors of early mortality following surgical or nonsurgical treatment of subaxial cervical spine fractures: a retrospective nationwide registry study

BACKGROUND: Traumatic subaxial cervical spine fractures are a significant public health concern due to their association with spinal cord injuries (SCI). Despite being mostly caused by low- energy trauma, these fractures significantly contribute to morbidity and mortality. Currently, research regarding early mortality based on the choice of treatment following these fractures is limited. Identifying predictors of early mortality may aid in postoperative patient monitoring and improve outcomes. PURPOSE: This study aimed to identify predictors of 30-days, 90-days, and 1-year mortality in adults treated for subaxial fractures. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective review of the nationwide Swedish Fracture Register (SFR). PATIENT SAMPLE: All adult patients in the SFR who underwent treatment for a subaxial cervical fracture (n = 1,963). OUTCOME MEASURES: Analyzed variables included age, sex, injury mechanism, neurological function, fracture characteristics, and treatment type. The primary endpoints were 30-days, 90- days, and 1-year mortality. METHODS: About 1,963 patients in the SFR, treated for subaxial cervical fractures between 2013 and 2021, were analyzed. Surgical procedures included anterior, posterior, or anteroposterior approaches. Nonsurgical treatment included collar treatment or medical examinations without intervention. Stepwise regression and Cox regression analysis were used to determine predictors. Model performance was tested using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: A total of 620 patients underwent surgery and 1,343 received nonsurgical treatment. Surgical cases had primarily translation fractures, with 323 (52%) displaying no neurological deficits. Mortality rates at 30 days, 90 days, and 1 year were 22/620 (3.5%), 35/620 (5.6%), and 53/620 (8.5%), respectively. Age and SCI were predictors of mortality. Nonsurgically treated patients mostly had compression fracture, with 1,214 (90%) experiencing no neurological deficits. Mortality rates at 30 days, 90 days, and 1 year were 41/1,343 (3.1%), 71/1,343 (5.3%), and 118/1,343 (8.7%). Age, male sex, SCI and fractures occurring at the C3 or C6 levels were predictors of mortality. An intact neurological function was a positive predictor of survival among nonsurgically treated patients (AUC >0.78). CONCLUSIONS: Age and SCI emerged as significant predictors of early mortality in both surgically and nonsurgically treated patients. An intact neurological function served as a protective factor against early mortality in nonsurgically treated patients. Fractures at C3 or C6 vertebrae may impact mortality. (c) 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)