Estimating the Effect of Bariatric Surgery on Cardiovascular Events Using Observational Data?

Background:Observational studies have reported strongly protective effects of bariatric surgery on cardiovascular disease, but with oversimplified definitions of the intervention, eligibility criteria, and follow-up, which deviate from those in a randomized trial. We describe an attempt to estimate the effect of bariatric surgery on cardiovascular disease without introducing these sources of bias, which may not be entirely possible with existing observational data.Methods:We propose two target trials among persons with diabetes: (1) bariatric operation (vs. no operation) among individuals who have undergone preoperative preparation (lifestyle modifications and screening) and (2) preoperative preparation and a bariatric operation (vs. neither preoperative nor operative component). We emulated both target trials using observational data of US veterans.Results:Comparing bariatric surgery with no surgery (target trial #1; 8,087 individuals), the 7-year cardiovascular risk was 18.0% (95% CI = 6.9, 32.7) in the surgery group and 18.9% (95% CI = 17.7, 20.1) in the no-surgery group (risk difference -0.9, 95% CI = -12.0, 14.0). Comparing preoperative components plus surgery vs. neither (target trial #2; 10,065 individuals), the 7-year cardiovascular risk was 17.4% (95% CI = 13.6, 22.0) in the surgery group and 18.8% (95% CI = 17.8, 19.9) in the no-surgery group (risk difference -1.4, 95% CI = -5.1, 3.2). Body mass index and hemoglobin A1c were reduced with bariatric interventions in both emulations.Conclusions:Within limitations of available observational data, our estimates do not provide evidence that bariatric surgery reduces cardiovascular disease and support equipoise for a randomized trial of bariatric surgery for cardiovascular disease prevention.