Drivers of industrial carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region, China: A combination of decoupling and LMDI models

The expansion of the industrial economy has resulted in high carbon emissions (CE) from the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region. Industrial CE reduction is a non-negligible way to achieve green and low-carbon development. In this paper, we aim to study the decoupling effect of industrial CE and its socio-economic influencing factors in the YRD region from 2005 to 2020. First, the decoupling relationship between industrial CE and industrial output in the YRD region is measured. Then, using the LMDI method, the variation of industrial CE is decomposed into six factors: energy structure ($\Delta {c_s}$Delta cs), energy intensity ($\Delta {c_i}$Delta ci), economic scale ($\Delta {c_e}$Delta ce), labor structure ($\Delta {c_l}$Delta cl), urbanization rate ($\Delta {c_u}$Delta cu) and population size ($\Delta {c_p}$Delta cp) effect. Subsequently, by combining with the decoupling and LMDI models, the contribution of each factor to the decoupling of industrial CE is studied, and the elasticity of each factor is expressed by ${\eta _s}$eta s, ${\eta _i}$eta i, ${\eta _e}$eta e, ${\eta _l}$eta l, ${\eta _u}$eta u, and ${\eta _p}$eta p. The main findings show that: (1) There are two states of weak and strong decoupling between industrial CE and the industrial economy in the YRD. (2) $\Delta {c_e}$Delta ce is the most powerful factor in promoting industrial CE, while $\Delta {c_i}$Delta ci and $\Delta {c_l}$Delta cl are the factors that inhibit industrial CE in the YRD. (3) ${\eta _i}$eta i and ${\eta _l}$eta l have promoted the decoupling of industrial CE from economic advancement in the YRD and its three provinces and one city, while ${\eta _e}$eta e has consistently been the largest obstacle to the decoupling process. Finally, the policy recommendations proposed in this paper aim to help policy-makers and practitioners in the YRD region achieve a win-win balance between industrial CE and industrial output, and inspire further research on the decoupling and decomposition of industrial CE from an academic perspective.