Understanding the Relationship between Urban Form and Urban Shrinkage among Medium-Sized Cities in Poland and Its Implications for Sustainability

Understanding the relationship between urban form and urban shrinkage is crucial for developing sustainable urban policies, particularly in medium-sized cities facing demographic and economic challenges. This study investigates the complex relationship between urban form and urban shrinkage in medium-sized Polish cities (population of 20,000 to 100,000), highlighting the implications for sustainability. Utilising a comprehensive multi-factor approach, it analyses the shrinkage and growth trends over 15 years (2006-2021) by establishing a shrinkage/growth score based on social, demographic, and economic factors for each city. It examines spatial aspects, particularly urban form compactness and population density, using Corine Land Cover (CLC) spatial data, making the methodology applicable to urban areas across Europe. The findings reveal no significant overall correlation between urban compactness and shrinkage/growth score across all cities. However, a positive correlation exists within "urban municipalities", indicating that less compact urban areas tend to experience more shrinkage. Additionally, a temporary negative correlation between population density and shrinkage/growth score was observed from 2006 to 2016, which shifted to a positive trend in "urban municipalities" from 2016 to 2021. These results highlight urban shrinkage's complex and dynamic nature and its potential ties to urban form. The study concludes with recommendations for urban policymakers and planners regarding compact and dense urban strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of shrinkage and enhance urban resilience and sustainability. While the trends change, the study highlights the need for further analysis of these relationships.