Analysis of predictive factors for late recurrence of atrial fibrillation after surgical ablation in patients undergoing rheumatic valve surgery

Objectives To identify independent predictors of late recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) after surgical ablation in patients undergoing rheumatic valve surgery. Methods A total of 258 patients who underwent surgical ablation for AF with rheumatic heart disease at our hospital between January 2019 and June 2022 were retrospectively included. The patients were followed up for 12 months. Late recurrence was defined as any AF recurrence longer than 30 s between 3 and 12 months. Patients with or without late recurrence were divided into non-recurrence and recurrence groups. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the predictors of late recurrence. Results The in-hospital mortality rate was 0.8% (2/258), and the late recurrence rate of AF was 38.4%, including 152 and 95 cases in the non-recurrent and recurrent groups respectively, with a follow-up completion rate of 96.5% (247/256). There were no deaths during follow-up, two patients (0.8%) experienced a stroke, and one patient (0.4%) experienced gastrointestinal hemorrhage. The results of the univariate and multivariate analyses of the preoperative risk factors for late recurrence showed a left atrial (LA) anteroposterior diameter >= 52.9 mm (odds ratio [OR] = 2.366, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.089-5.138, P = 0.030], ratio of the superoinferior to the anteroposterior diameters of LA (S-AR) < 1.19 (OR = 4.639, 95% CI = 2.181-9.865, P < 0.001), and AF duration >= 39 months (OR = 6.152, 95% CI = 2.897-13.061, P < 0.001), and cardiothoracic ratio >= 0.63 (OR = 2.716, 95% CI = 1.314-5.612, P = 0.007) were the most significant independent risk factors. Conclusions LA anteroposterior diameter >= 52.9 mm, S-AR < 1.19, and AF duration >= 36 months and cardiothoracic ratio >= 0.63 are independent predictors for late recurrence of AF after surgical ablation in patients undergoing rheumatic valve surgery.