A Physics-of-Failure (PoF) model-based Dynamic Bayesian Network for considering the aging of safety barriers in the risk assessment of industrial facilities

被引：0

作者：

Marchetti, Stefano ^{[1
]}

Di Maio, Francesco ^{[1
]}

Zio, Enrico ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Politecn Milan, Energy Dept, I-20156 Milan, Italy

[2] Ctr Rech Risques & Crises CRC, MINES Paris PSL, Sophia Antipolis, France

来源：

JOURNAL OF LOSS PREVENTION IN THE PROCESS INDUSTRIES | 2024年 / 91卷

关键词：

Process safety; Risk assessment; Safety barriers degradation; Physics-of-Failure (PoF); Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs); NaTech scenarios; QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT; DOMINO; PROBABILITY;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105402

中图分类号：

TQ [化学工业];

学科分类号：

0817 ;

摘要：

In this work, a novel Physics-of-Failure (PoF) model-based framework is proposed for accounting for the aging of safety barriers in the risk assessment of industrial facilities. A PoF model of aging is integrated into the barriers fragility models to provide fragility surfaces as functions of both the hazard magnitude and the barrier age. Such modelling is integrated in a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) for the risk assessment. The proposed framework is applied to a case study of a chemical facility exposed to Natural hazard-induced Technological (NaTech) risk due to earthquakes. The results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the framework.

引用

页数：14

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