Projecting LUCC dynamics and ecosystem services in an emerging urban agglomeration under SSP-RCP scenarios and their management implications

被引:12
作者
Chen, Qiaobin [1 ,2 ]
Ning, Ying [3 ]
机构
[1] Cent South Univ Forestry & Technol CSUFT, Natl Engn Lab Appl Technol Forestry & Ecol South C, Changsha 410004, Peoples R China
[2] Minist Nat Resources, Technol Innovat Ctr Ecol Protect & Restorat Dongti, Changsha 410004, Peoples R China
[3] CSUFT, Coll Forest, Changsha 410004, Peoples R China
关键词
Ecosystem services; System dynamics; Scenario simulation; Ecosystem services bundle; USE/LAND-COVER CHANGE; LAND-USE; DRIVING FACTORS; CARBON STORAGE; CHINA; URBANIZATION; OPTIMIZATION; CLIMATE; MODELS;
D O I
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175100
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Improving our knowledge of future dynamics of ecosystem services (ESs) in the face of climate change and human activities provides a crucial foundation to navigate complex environmental challenges, which are essential to attaining sustainable development particularly in urban regions. However, an existing dearth persists in thoroughly forecasting the intricate interplay of trade-offs and synergies, as well as ecosystem services bundling under distinct future scenarios. This study adopts an integrated research framework to understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of ESs in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration (CZTUA) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios (i.e., SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585). Our future scenarios suggest that the core urban area of CZTUA is projected to expand at the cost of forests and croplands by 2050. Furthermore, human-induced urbanization, particularly the highintensity LUCC along the Xiangjiang river, significantly impacts ESs, resulting in lower ESs values. The tradeoff effects between ESs are primarily observed between WY (water yield) and other ESs. Ecosystem service bundles (ESB) previously dominated by WY have significantly transitioned to CS (carbon storage)-HQ (habitat quality) bundle, especially in the urban core of CZTUA, which serves as an early warning of potential challenges related to water resources. Our study utilizes the latest climate and land use change predictions to evaluate ecosystems in urban agglomerations, and adopts a layered zoning strategy based on ESs, which provides decision-makers with reproducible tools to explore ecosystem changes.
引用
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页数:13
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