Increasing Wind Threat of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Based on a Comprehensive Risk Analysis Using Multi-Hazard Hurricane Index and Social Vulnerability Index

Tropical cyclones' (TCs) wind-speed and rainfall are hazardous drivers that threats coastal communities in the Southeast United States by causing storm surge and coastal flooding. This study proposed a comprehensive risk analysis over time, which takes into account the likelihood of coinciding wind and rainfall hazards related to TC events during the period 1979-2022, and considered various combinations of social vulnerability factors for the years 2000-2022. This study incorporates increasing data and historical records as year changes in the past. 29 TCs were examined by their correlation between estimated TC risks and damages in practice. Less than 6% of the cases with stronger correlation when TC risk was based on the multi-hazard hurricane index was observed until 2017, and wind-based risks were becoming more dominant recently. Our findings indicate that coastal communities are becoming more vulnerable to TC risks related to wind (i.e. heavy wind, storm surge, and coastal flooding) rather than rainfall in the future.