Short- and long-term effects of carbon taxation on the prices of products shipped by sea

This study analyzes econometrically the effect of fuel carbon taxation on the prices of internationally traded goods transported by the maritime sector. Around 80% of global trade by volume is transported by sea, contributing to a nontrivial level of carbon emissions. This study is the first to analyze the effect of carbon taxation on the prices of export products transported by sea, using detailed data for the heaviest 6-digit products from 21 industries that account for 75% of the total weight of goods transported by sea. The results reveal that the closer a product is to the core competence of the exporting firm (lowest marginal production costs), the weaker the effect of the carbon tax will be on prices. This effect on export prices will be even weaker for products of certain industries that have the highest unit sales value/weight ratios. To contribute to decarbonizing the maritime sector, a carbon tax should be maintained uninterruptedly to fully internalize the awareness that improving fuel consumption competitiveness by considering the distance traveled and weight of traded products to ultimately reduce carbon tax costs.