Historical volatile organic compound emission performance, drivers, and mitigation potential for automobile manufacturing in China

The rising emission trend of volatile organic compound (VOC) from automobile manufacturing (AMVOC) in China has been effectively curbed. However, the effect and driving force of this reduction remains unclear, posing a challenge of further deep emission mitigation for better air quality. Herein, we analyzed the spatiotemporal emission characteristics of AMVOC, identified the key drivers, and predicted the mitigation potential under different scenarios. The results indicated that China's AMVOC emissions followed an increasing-thendecreasing trend from 2001 to 2020, from 44.7 Gg in 2001, peaking at 211.8 Gg in 2012 and declining to 81.6 Gg in 2020. The most notable factor that positively drove AMVOC emissions was economic development, contributing to 88.3% of the increase. Conversely, the reduction in AMVOC emissions was primarily attributed to the internal structure of the automotive industry and the emission intensity, contributing to 44.7% and 43.8% of the emission decrease, respectively. Furthermore, scenario analysis results show that China's AMVOC emissions in 2035 were reduced by 55.5% through a combination of the whole process control measures. Overall, our study confirms the effectiveness of China's AMVOC control measures and offers valuable insights for future policymakers in China and other countries facing similar challenges.