Spatial and temporal divergence and driving mechanisms of carbon sinks in terrestrial ecosystems in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomerations during 2008-2020

Urban cluster carbon sinks are key parts of the terrestrial carbon cycle, and play an important role in global climate change. Based on the inversion results of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration (MRYRUA), this study considered the influence of both natural environmental and socioeconomic factors on NEP, and investigated the driving mechanism of carbon sink emphasizing spatial and temporal heterogeneity by the geographically and temporally weighted regression model (GTWR). Results demonstrated that (1) During 2008-2020, the annual average NEP was positive in MRYRUA, and the carbon sink effect of terrestrial ecosystem increased. (2) In MRYRUA, Precipitation and DEM were positively correlated with carbon sinks, opposite for temperature, percentage of water areas and population density. (3) During the study period, the influence of natural environmental factors, such as temperature and precipitation on NEP grew gradually weaker, whereas that of socioeconomic factors increased. The influence of urbanization rate, night lights index and factors of industrial structure changed from negative to positive, while percentage of builtup area had an increasing negative effect on NEP. Based on the conclusions above, this study proposed differentiated policy implications, including improving vegetation hydrothermal environment, controlling urban expansion and accelerating industrial transformation. It would provide empirical inspiration for attaining peak carbon, carbon neutrality, and sustainable development goals.