Forest-based climate change mitigation measures can generate economy-environment-bioenergy synergistic benefits in China

Faced with the multiple challenges of mitigating climate change, controlling air pollution, preserving ecological environments, and promoting economic growth, developing countries need to seek a synergistic development path. The Forest Carbon Sink Project (FCSP) has the potential to support developing countries in achieving these objectives. Currently, empirical research on the synergistic benefits of FCSPs is limited, leading to ongoing debate about their economic and environmental benefits. Therefore, this study uses panel data from 1600 counties in China to provide evidence for the development of FCSPs. Firstly, the study employs a difference-in-differences model to quantitatively assess the causal relationship between FCSP and both economic development and air quality. Furthermore, this study evaluates the potential of FCSP to reduce carbon emissions by setting a scenario of bioenergy planting (BCP). The empirical results show that, compared to non-project counties, FCSP project counties experience a 6.70% increase in real GDP and a 0.90% decrease in PM2.5 concentration. FCSP generates economic benefits by increasing residents' income, boosting fixed asset investment, and upgrading industrial structure. And it improves air quality by expanding forest area and enhancing vegetation coverage. Scenario simulations show that in the BCP scenario, one project county can yield 23.39 Kt of biomass yearly. Scaling the FCSP to 500 counties would result in an annual reduction of 24.46 Mt. of CO2 emissions. This amount constitutes roughly 28% of China's CO2 emission increase in [8], which was 88 Mt.