Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents' expectations through symbolic regression

被引:5
作者
Claveria, Oscar [1 ]
Monte, Enric [2 ]
Torra, Salvador [3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Barcelona, AQR IREA Inst Appl Econ Res, Barcelona, Spain
[2] Polytech Univ Catalunya UPC, Dept Signal Theory & Commun, Barcelona, Spain
[3] Univ Barcelona, Riskctr IREA, Barcelona, Spain
关键词
Symbolic regression; evolutionary algorithms; genetic programming; tendency surveys; expectations; forecasting; QUALITATIVE SURVEY DATA; CARLSON-PARKIN METHOD; QUANTIFYING SURVEY EXPECTATIONS; INFLATION-EXPECTATIONS; MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS;
D O I
10.1080/13504851.2016.1218419
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
Agents' perceptions on the state of the economy can be affected during economic crises. Tendency surveys are the main source of agents' expectations. The main objective of this study is to assess the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on agents' expectations. With this aim, we evaluate the capacity of survey-based expectations to anticipate economic growth in the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom. We propose a symbolic regression (SR) via genetic programming approach to derive mathematical functional forms that link survey-based expectations to GDP growth. By combining the main SR-generated indicators, we generate estimates of the evolution of GDP. Finally, we analyse the effect of the crisis on the formation of expectations, and we find an improvement in the capacity of agents' expectations to anticipate economic growth after the crisis in all countries except Germany.
引用
收藏
页码:648 / 652
页数:5
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