The Representation of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves in Simulations With Modified Wave Amplitudes

Convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) are important drivers of tropical weather and may influence extreme rainfall and tropical cyclone formation. However, directly attributing these impacts to CCKWs remains a challenge. Numerical models also struggle to simulate the convective coupling of CCKWs. To address these gaps in understanding, this study examines a set of global simulations in which CCKW amplitudes are modified in the initial conditions. The Model for Prediction Across Scales -Atmosphere is used to simulate a time period in which several CCKWs coexisted around the globe, including an unusually strong CCKW located over the Atlantic. Prior to running the simulation, Kelvin-filtered fields are identified in initial conditions and used to either amplify or dampen the initial wave amplitude. This method is effective at robustly changing the strength and structure of simulated CCKWs and can illuminate their convective coupling. Rainfall intensity within simulated CCKWs is shown to be partially controlled by column saturation fraction and deep convective inhibition. Despite the accurate depiction of most CCKWs during this time period, however, these experiments fail to simulate convective coupling in the strong Atlantic CCKW. This is true even after amplifying this wave at initialization. The cause of this failure is unclear and motivates additional work into the modeling and predictability of CCKW events. Overall, this study demonstrates that modifying CCKW amplitudes can serve as a useful tool for understanding CCKWs. This method may also be useful for future attributional work on the influence of CCKWs on other phenomena. Convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) are large waves in Earth's atmosphere that travel along the equator and can influence other weather features, like rainfall and tropical cyclones. However, it has been difficult to directly prove how CCKWs impact these other weather features. Weather forecasting models also struggle to accurately simulate CCKWs. To address these challenges, this study investigates a set of modeling experiments in which the strength of CCKWs has been changed. The Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere is used to produce simulations of a period for which several CCKWs existed around the world. The strength of these CCKW is changed in the initial conditions prior to running these simulations. Results show this adjustment method is effective at changing the strength and structure of simulated CCKWs. This is useful for identifying the connections between a wave's wind structure and rainfall. However, these experiments fail to accurately simulate a strong CCKW over the Atlantic. The cause of this failure is unclear, motivating additional work into modeling CCKW events. This study demonstrates how a method for changing CCKW strength could serve as a useful tool for understanding CCKWs and their influence on other weather features. A method is presented to effectively adjust Kelvin wave amplitudes in simulations with parameterized convection This method can identify two-way convective coupling in Kelvin waves and has potential use in attributional work on their impacts The failure of numerical models to simulate a strong Kelvin wave motivates future work on the predictability of individual wave events