RUSSIA AT WAR: THE CONSEQUENCES FOR GREAT POWER POLITICS, THE BRICS AND THE GLOBAL SOUTH

Great power competition, the hardening of the U.S.-China rivalry, and worsening tensions between Russia and the West following Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, had already strained international governance and multilateral institutions like the BRICS even before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Now in its third year, the Kremlin perceives it has turned the tide in its fight against Ukraine, foiling Western plans to inflict a "strategic defeat" on Russia. Many experts in the United States and Europe worry not only about a possible Russian victory of varying scales against Ukraine, the bleak transformation of European security, and Putin's recurring mentions of how the war could escalate into a civilization-ending nuclear conflict. There are also fears that such confident and aggressive rhetoric may next be heard in support of armed conflicts initiated by Beijing on the other side of the world.