Exploring spatiotemporal patterns of algal cell density in lake Dianchi with explainable machine learning

The escalating global occurrence of algal blooms poses a growing threat to ecosystem services. In this study, the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of water quality parameters was leveraged to partition Lake Dianchi into three clusters. Considering water quality parameters and both the delayed and instantaneous effects of meteorological factors, ensemble learning, and quasi-Monte Carlo methods were employed to predict daily algal cell density (AD) between January 2021 and January 2024. Consistently, superior predictive accuracy across all three clusters was exhibited by the Stacking-Elastic-Net regularization model. Furthermore, the minimum combination of drivers that achieved near-optimal accuracy for each cluster was identified, striking a balance between accuracy and cost. The ranking of the effect of drivers on AD varied by cluster, while the delayed effect of meteorological factors on AD generally outweighed their instantaneous effect for all clusters. Additionally, the heterogeneous or homogeneous thresholds and responses between drivers and AD were explored. These findings could serve as a scientific and cost-effective basis for government agencies to develop regional sustainable strategies for managing water quality.