A nomogram to predict cryptococcal meningitis in patients with pulmonary cryptococcosis

Background: The most serious manifestation of pulmonary cryptococcosis is complicated with cryptococcal meningitis, while its clinical manifestations lack specificity with delayed diagnosis and high mortality. The early prediction of this complication can assist doctors to carry out clinical interventions in time, thus improving the cure rate. This study aimed to construct a nomogram to predict the risk of cryptococcal meningitis in patients with pulmonary cryptococcosis through a scoring system. Methods: The clinical data of 525 patients with pulmonary cryptococcosis were retrospectively analyzed, including 317 cases (60.38 %) with cryptococcal meningitis and 208 cases (39.62 %) without cryptococcal meningitis. The risk factors of cryptococcal meningitis were screened by univariate analysis, LASSO regression analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Then the risk factors were incorporated into the nomogram scoring system to establish a prediction model. The model was validated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve. Results: Fourteen risk factors for cryptococcal meningitis in patients with pulmonary cryptococcosis were screened out by statistical method, including 6 clinical manifestations (fever, headache, nausea, psychiatric symptoms, tuberculosis, hematologic malignancy) and 8 clinical indicators (neutrophils, lymphocytes, glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase, T cells, helper T cells, killer T cells, NK cells and B cells). The AUC value was 0.978 (CI 96.2 %similar to 98.9 %), indicating the nomogram was well verified. Conclusion: The nomogram scoring system constructed in this study can accurately predict the risk of cryptococcal meningitis in patients with pulmonary cryptococcosis, which may provide a reference for clinical diagnosis and treatment of patients with cryptococcal meningitis.