Unveiling the interconnected dynamics of urbanization, energy consumption, and food exports: assessing carbon emissions with an innovative ARDL approach

The rapid advancements in industrialization and urbanization, along with the growing need for energy and transportation, have become significant factors in the emergence of environmental concerns, particularly the alarming rise in carbon dioxide (CO2\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{CO}}_{2}$$\end{document}) emissions. The trends above possess significant ramifications for various sectors, including food production and trade. Nevertheless, existing studies mainly explore the relationship between these variables and food production. It is imperative to place greater emphasis on comprehending the correlation between these variables and their influence on the exportation of food products. The objective of this study is to address the existing research gap by utilizing a new dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (DYARDL) framework. The study specifically centers on Nigeria and employs a dataset spanning from 1981 to 2021. By integrating both short- and long-term associations, this methodology facilitates a thorough examination of the interdependencies among the variables under investigation. The findings of the research demonstrate a noteworthy and log-term connection between the variables, wherein heightened urbanization has a beneficial effect on food exports, while elevated levels of CO2\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{CO}}_{2}$$\end{document} emissions and energy consumption adversely affect food exports. Energy consumption and urbanization have substantial short-term impacts on food exports, whereas the impact of transportation is not statistically significant. To promote sustained growth in food exports in Nigeria, policy measures are recommended to encourage sustainable urbanization, promote energy-efficient practices, and simultaneously address CO2\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{CO}}_{2}$$\end{document} emissions in the agriculture, industrial, and transport sectors.