Economic incentives for woodland creation on farmland: Modelling the impacts on biodiversity

This paper models the effects of economic incentives on woodland planting on UK farmland, and the spatiallyvarying impacts on three avian species. The economic model uses an agent-based approach: "farmers " in each parcel compare economic returns from keeping their current agricultural land use with the economic incentive for woodland planting. An ecological model then predicts the effects of both parcel-level and local landscapelevel woodland cover on species distributions. We compare results from two case study areas which vary in terms of the spatial correlation of opportunity costs and ecological potential. As the per -hectare value of the subsidy for woodland planting is increased, the values of our biodiversity indicator increase, but at rates which vary by case study area and by species. The cost-effectiveness of the economic instrument varies according to the sign of the spatial correlation between opportunity costs and ecological potential.