Assessing the efficiency of bird habitat conservation strategies in farmland ecosystems

Land use changes negatively impact agroecosystems, where the loss of wildlife habitats is increasingly threatening global biodiversity. Ecological conservation strategies that seek to reduce habitat destruction are important and strongly rely on understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of land use change. In recent years, an expert-based approach using the Analytic Network Process (ANP) has been applied commonly to wildlife habitat assessment, and the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s) model is a wellknown simulation tool used to predict land use dynamics. Although their effectiveness has been proven widely, existing studies have yet to integrate the two approaches into ecological modeling for conserving bird habitats under the influence of land use changes. Thus, there is a notable research gap regarding the potential synergies of the ANP and CLUE-s models to evaluate the spatial nonstationarity between bird habitats and land use patterns. In this study, we integrated use of the ANP to identify suitable habitats for birds on farmland with the CLUE-s model to predict future changes in habitat suitability by 2035. Our study aims to evaluate the efficiency of various conservation strategies for bird habitat in farmland ecosystems within the Zhuoshui River basin in Taiwan. We formulated conservation strategies to protect areas of farmland based on their relative suitability as bird habitats. The research findings reveal a significant reduction of farmland habitats coinciding with expanding built-up areas and forests, while designating farmland areas for conservation purposes effectively ensures the maintenance of bird habitats amidst these transformations. Conserving highly suitable farmland habitats (those whose suitability values ranked at or above the 75th percentile) presents the most effective strategy to mitigate the impacts of land use change on bird habitats. Under this strategy, changes in farmland habitats lead to a notable decrease of 16.4 % in low and very low suitability, whereas farmland habitats with moderate and high suitability significantly expand by 879.8 % and 225.9 %, respectively. Farmland habitats characterized by high suitability are concentrated in the western region of the Zhuoshui River basin, accounting for 2289 hectares. These findings underscore the magnitude of habitat loss resulting from land use changes outside conserved areas. Our research emphasizes the importance of implementing conservation strategies for bird habitats, providing policymakers with a framework to manage farmland ecosystems effectively.