The impact of large-scale ecological restoration projects on trade-offs/ synergies and clusters of ecosystem services

Understanding the relationships between ecosystem services (ES) and the factors driving their changes over long periods and multiple scales is key for landscape managers in decision-making. However, the widespread implementation of restoration programs has led to significant ES changes, with trade-offs across space and time that have been little explored empirically, making it challenging to provide effective experience for managers. We quantified changes and interactions among five ES across various stages of the Grain-to-Green Program in the eastern Loess Plateau, examining these dynamics at threefold spatial scales. We observed notable increases in soil retention and Net Ecosystem Production but declines in habitat quality and Landscape aesthetics under afforestation. Over time, and with more integrated restoration strategies, synergies between ES pairs weakened, and non-correlations (even trade-offs) increased. To avoid unnecessary trade-offs, we recommend incorporating socio-ecological factors driving ES changes and ES bundles, informed by empirical experience, into proactive spatial planning and environmental management strategies for multi-ES objectives. The temporal lags and spatial trade-offs highlighted by this study offer crucial insights for large-scale restoration programs worldwide.