Can necrotic depth be a substitute of necrotic volume to predict collapse progression in osteonecrosis of the femoral head?

Objective Although some patients may experience collapse progression while others may not in post-collapse osteonecrosis of the femoral head (ONFH) with a necrotic lesion located within the weight-bearing part of the acetabulum (Type B/C1), few studies have focused on the natural course after collapse. This study aimed to clarify the correlation between necrotic volume (NV) and necrotic depth (ND) in predicting collapse progression in patients with post-collapse ONFH Type B/C1. Materials and methods We retrospectively reviewed 54 hips with post-collapse ONFH Type B/C1 from 52 consecutive patients who were conservatively followed up for more than 1 year. We measured the amount of femoral head collapse using biplane radiographs at each follow-up period, and produced Kaplan-Meier survival curves with collapse progression (>= 1 mm) as the endpoint. We compared NV and ND, which were calculated as the ratio of the distance from the articular surface of the femoral head to the deepest point of a necrotic lesion to the femoral head diameter in the mid-coronal slice of T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Results We observed collapse progression in 31 hips (57.4%). The NV and ND were significantly greater in hips with collapse progression than in those without collapse progression (p = 0.0127 and 0.0047, respectively). Necrotic volume was significantly correlated with ND (rs = 0.56, p < 0.0001). Conclusion This study suggests that necrotic depth on the mid-coronal slice of T1-weighted MRI can be a substitute for necrotic volume to predict collapse progression in ONFH Type B/C1.