Promoting sustainable development by mitigation of natural habitat quality decline through multifunctional urban land use: Insights from a multi-scenario simulation

Urban expansion threatens natural habitat quality (NHQ) and hinders the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals. Whether and how multifunctional urban land use (MFULU) can mitigate NHQ decline under future urban expansion remains unclear. This study developed a theoretical framework for mitigating NHQ decline via MFULU, and examined the mitigation based on a multi-scenario simulation using the Patchgenerating Land use Simulation model and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model. Three future scenarios, each including MFULU and non-MFULU modes, were considered in the simulation: Business as Usual, Economic Development, and Ecological Priority. Urban expansion led to less encroachment into natural habitats in MFULU modes than in non-MFULU modes. Additionally, natural habitats were less aggregated, and more irregular than in non-MFULU modes under all scenarios, especially those with moderate and higher NHQ levels. Natural habitats were more aggregated and regular in MFULU modes than in non-MFULU modes under all scenarios. These results verified MFULU's positive contributions in preserving natural habitats under the conservation effect of MFULU and improving the landscape patterns of natural habitats under the agglomeration effect of MFULU. The findings have implications for formulating land-sharing policies that realize win-win situations between sustainable urban development and a resilient ecological environment.