Extreme events and coupled socio-ecological systems

Rare, but potentially impactful, extreme events in socio-ecological systems (SES) can trigger significant consequences. The scarcity of theoretical frameworks for such events in SES is due to data limitations and difficulty in parameterizing coupled SES models. We explore the effect of extreme events on coupled socioecological systems using two stylized case studies: harvesting of old-growth forests and coral reef fisheries. We found that extreme events alter the long-term and transient dynamics of the systems. We identify counterintuitive situations where the degradation of forests or coral habitat can prevent extinction through social dynamics feedback. Management outcomes show maximum variability at intermediate disturbance frequencies, complicating predictions of ecological recovery. We also found that initial conditions significantly influence system responses to shocks. Our work lays a foundation for future studies on extreme events in socio-ecological dynamics. Future work could explore more detailed models rooted in the literature, especially related to the modeling of the social dynamics.