Predicting COPD exacerbations based on quantitative CT analysis: an external validation study

Purpose Quantitative computed tomography (CT) analysis is an important method for diagnosis and severity evaluation of lung diseases. However, the association between CT-derived biomarkers and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations remains unclear. We aimed to investigate its potential in predicting COPD exacerbations. Methods Patients with COPD were consecutively enrolled, and their data were analyzed in this retrospective study. Body composition and thoracic abnormalities were analyzed from chest CT scans. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors of exacerbation. Based on 2-year follow-up data, the deep learning system (DLS) was developed to predict future exacerbations. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was conducted to assess the diagnostic performance. Finally, the survival analysis was performed to further evaluate the potential of the DLS in risk stratification. Results A total of 1,150 eligible patients were included and followed up for 2 years. Multivariate analysis revealed that CT-derived high affected lung volume/total lung capacity (ALV/TLC) ratio, high visceral adipose tissue area (VAT), and low pectoralis muscle cross-sectional area (CSA) were independent risk factors causing COPD exacerbations. The DLS outperformed exacerbation history and the BMI, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, and exercise capacity (BODE) index, with an area under the ROC (AUC) value of 0.88 (95%CI, 0.82-0.92) in the internal cohort and 0.86 (95%CI, 0.81-0.89) in the external cohort. The DeLong test revealed significance between this system and conventional scores in the test cohorts (p < 0.05). In the survival analysis, patients with higher risk were susceptible to exacerbation events. Conclusion The DLS could allow accurate prediction of COPD exacerbations. The newly identified CT biomarkers (ALV/TLC ratio, VAT, and pectoralis muscle CSA) could potentially enable investigation into underlying mechanisms responsible for exacerbations.