Long-range Ising model for regional-scale seismic risk analysis

This study introduces the long-range Ising model from statistical mechanics to the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework for regional seismic damage analysis. The application of the PBEE framework at a regional scale involves estimating the damage states (DSs$DS\mathrm{s}$) of numerous structures, typically performed using fragility function-based stochastic simulations. However, these simulations often assume conditional independence or employ simplistic dependency models among the DSs$DS\mathrm{s}$ of structures, leading to significant misrepresentation of regional risk. The Ising model addresses this issue by converting the available information on binary DSs$DS\mathrm{s}$ (safe or failure) into a joint probability mass function, leveraging the principle of maximum entropy. The Ising model offers two main benefits: (1) it requires only the first- and second-order cross-moments, enabling seamless integration with the existing PBEE framework, and (2) it provides meaningful physical interpretations of the model parameters, facilitating the uncovering of insights not apparent from data. To demonstrate the proposed method, we applied the Ising model to 156 buildings in Antakya, Turkey, using post-hazard damage evaluation data, and to 182 buildings in Pacific Heights, San Francisco, using simulated data from the Regional Resilience Determination tool. In both instances, the Ising model accurately reproduces the provided information and generates meaningful insights into regional damage. The study also investigates the change in Ising model parameters under varying earthquake magnitudes, along with the mean-field approximation, further facilitating the applicability of the proposed approach.