Regional-scale energy-water nexus framework to assess the GHG emissions under climate change and development scenarios via system dynamics approach

Nowadays, the consumption of natural resources is increasing due to population growth, climate change, and development. Considering the crucial impacts of the regional characteristics, this study develops an energywater-emissions (EWE) nexus model using a system dynamics (SD) framework to assess the pattern of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The model simulates regional GHG emissions (including indirect emissions of the electricity sector) under climate change and development scenarios from 2011 to 2031. The results indicate that total emissions are projected to increase in the future, while water-related emissions are expected to decrease. The study highlights the limitations of global assumptions at the regional scale, emphasizing the need for planning based on specific regional scale conditions. Through evaluating different development scenarios, the energy-saving scenario had the greatest impact on reducing emissions and resource consumption. Additionally, the results showed that development scenarios had varying effects in each region, highlighting the importance of defining region-specific development scenarios separately. This study offers policymakers valuable insights to enhance their understanding of the climate change effects to evaluate a range of development scenarios more effectively.