Urban spatial structure and air quality in the United States: Evidence from a longitudinal approach

Previous studies on the relationship between urban form and air quality: (1) report mixed results among specific aspects of urban spatial structure (e.g., urban expansion, form, or shape) and (2) use primarily cross-sectional approaches with a single year of data. This study takes advantage of a multi-decade, longitudinal approach to investigate the impact of urban spatial structure on population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5 and NO2. Based on fixed-effect regression models for 481 urban areas in the United States spanning from 1990 to 2015, we found significant associations between various aspects of urban spatial structure and air quality after controlling for meteorological and socio-economic factors. Our results show that population density, compact urban form, circularity, and green space are associated with lower concentrations. Conversely, higher rates of urban expansion, industrial area, and polycentricity are associated with higher concentrations. For large cities (total population: 180,262,404), we found that increasing key factors from each urban spatial structure category (i.e., greenness, population density, compactness, circularity) by a modest 10% results in 10,387 (12,376) fewer deaths for PM2.5 (NO2). We recommend that policymakers adopt comprehensive strategies to increase population density, compactness, and green spaces while slowing urban expansion to reduce the health burden of air quality in US cities.