The rate of QMGS change predicts recurrence after thymectomy in myasthenia gravis

Objective: To investigate the relationship between short-term changes in quantitative myasthenia gravis score (QMGS) after thymectomy and postoperative recurrence in myasthenia gravis (MG) patients without thymoma. Methods: A retrospective observational cohort study. The QMGS of 44 patients with non-thymomatous MG were evaluated before and 1 month after thymectomy, and the frequency and time of postoperative recurrence were recorded. The reduction rate of QMGS (rr-QMGS) was defined as (QMGS one week before thymectomy- QMGS one month after thymectomy)/ QMGS one week before thymectomy x 100 %, as an indicator of short-term symptom change after thymectomy. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was established to determine an appropriate cut-off value of rr-QMGS for distinguishing postoperative recurrence. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was applied to predict postoperative recurrence. Results: Postoperative recurrence occurred in 21 patients (30 times in total) during follow-up. The mean annual recurrence rate was 3.98 times/year preoperatively and 0.30 times/year postoperatively. ROC analysis determined the cut-off value of rr-QMGS was 36.7 % (sensitivity 90.5 %, specificity 52.2 %). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that rr-QMGS<36.7 % (hazard rate[HR]6.251, P = 0.014) is positive predictor of postoperative recurrence. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that postoperative recurrence time was earlier in the low rr-QMGS group than in the high rr-QMGS group (12.62 vs. 36.60 months, p = 0.005). Conclusions: Low rr-QMGS is associated with early postoperative recurrence. Rr-QMGS can be used to predict postoperative recurrence of non-thymomatous MG.