The prognostic value of pretreatment 18F-FDG PET-CT parameters with peripheral blood markers in patients with de novo metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Background and purpose: To develop and validate a prognostic nomogram based on pretreatment F-18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET-CT)radiomics parameters and peripheral blood markers for risk stratification in patients with de novo metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (dmNPC). Materials and Methods: A total of 558 patients with dmNPC were retrospectively enrolled between 2011 and 2019. Eligible patients were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts (7:3 ratio). A Cox regression model was used to identify prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the prognostic nomogram were determined using the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. Results: Independent factors derived from multivariable analysis of the training cohort to predict death were lactate dehydrogenase levels, pretreatment Epstein-Barr virus DNA, total lesion glycolysis of locoregional lesions, number of metastatic lesions, and age, all of which were assembled into a nomogram with (nomogram B) or without PET-CT parameters (nomogram A). The C-index of nomogram B for predicting death was 0.70, which was significantly higher than the C-index values for nomogram A. Patients were then stratified into low- and high-risk groups based on the scores calculated using nomogram B for OS. The median OS was significantly higher in the low-risk group than in the high-risk group (69.60 months [95 % CI: 58.50-108.66] vs. 21.40 months [95 % CI: 19.20-23.90]; p < 0.01). All the results were confirmed in the validation cohort. Conclusion: The proposed nomogram including PET-CT parameters yielded accurate prognostic predictions for patients with dmNPC, enabling effective risk stratification for these patients.