Shifts in plant functional groups along an aridity gradient in a tropical dry forest

Increasing aridity associated with climate change may lead to the crossing of critical ecosystem thresholds in drylands, compromising ecosystem services for millions of people. In this context, finding tools to detect at early stages the effects of increasing aridity on ecosystems is extremely urgent to avoid irreversible damage. Here, we assess shifts in plant community functional structure along a spatial aridity gradient in tropical dryland (Brazilian Caatinga), to select the most appropriate plant functional groups as ecological indicators likely useful to predict temporal ecosystem trajectories in response to aridity. We identified seven plant functional groups based on 13 functional traits associated with plant establishment, defense, regeneration, and dispersal, whose relative abundances changed, linearly and non -linearly, with increasing aridity, showing either increasing or decreasing trends. Of particular importance is the increase in abundance of plants with high chemical defense and Crassulacean Acid Metabolism (CAM) photosynthetic pathway, with increasing aridity. We propose the use of these functional groups as early warning indicators to detect aridity impacts on these dryland ecosystems and shifts in ecosystem functioning. This information can also be used in the elaboration of mitigation and ecological restoration measures to prevent and revert current and future climate change impacts on tropical dry forests.