Modeling stand mortality of Chinese fir plantations in subtropical China using mixed-effects zero-inflated negative binomial models

被引:1
作者
Liu, Jun [1 ]
Ouyang, Xunzhi [1 ]
Pan, Ping [1 ]
Ning, Jinkui [1 ]
Guo, Yang [1 ]
机构
[1] Jiangxi Agr Univ, Coll Forestry, Key Lab Natl Forestry & Grassland Adm Protect & Re, Nanchang 330045, Peoples R China
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
Stand mortality; Chinese fir plantations; Mixed -effects model; Zero -inflated model; Hurdle model; INDIVIDUAL-TREE MORTALITY; REGRESSION-MODELS; LEVEL MORTALITY; SITE;
D O I
10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122016
中图分类号
S7 [林业];
学科分类号
0829 ; 0907 ;
摘要
Analyzing the incidence of stand mortality, constructing a predictive mortality model, and identifying the factors influencing mortality can provide an evidence-based framework for managing forest growth and productivity. This study investigated the mortality of Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook.) plantations in Jiangxi Province, a subtropical region of China, utilizing national forest inventory data from 2006 to 2016. A total of 18 potential factors were identified across three categories: stand, site, and climate variables. Four statistical models were evaluated, including the zero-inflated Poisson model, zero-inflated negative binomial model, hurdle Poisson model, and hurdle negative binomial model, with incorporation for random effects at the plot-level to determine the most effective mortality model. The results showed that incorporating random effects at the plot-level significantly improved the fit and predictive capabilities, with the zero-inflated negative binomial model, which accounts for random effects in canopy cover, performing best. Mortality increased with higher canopy cover, stand basal area, elevation, and mean warmest month temperature, but decreased with greater humus thickness. It is advisable to maintain litter within the plantations to increase humus thickness. Moreover, implementing strategic thinning is vital for reducing inter-tree competitive pressures, managing microclimate conditions to promote temperature reduction and humidity enhancement during hot seasons and temperature elevation and humidity increase during cold seasons. These management approaches are projected to decrease mortality.
引用
收藏
页数:12
相关论文
共 45 条
[1]  
Anderegg WRL, 2015, NAT GEOSCI, V8, P367, DOI [10.1038/NGEO2400, 10.1038/ngeo2400]
[2]   Nutrient Release from Litter and Humus in Coniferous Forest Soils-a Mini Review [J].
Berg, Bjorn .
SCANDINAVIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH, 1986, 1 (1-4) :359-369
[3]   glmmTMB Balances Speed and Flexibility Among Packages for Zero-inflated Generalized Linear Mixed Modeling [J].
Brooks, Mollie E. ;
Kristensen, Kasper ;
van Benthem, Koen J. ;
Magnusson, Arni ;
Berg, Casper W. ;
Nielsen, Anders ;
Skaug, Hans J. ;
Machler, Martin ;
Bolker, Benjamin M. .
R JOURNAL, 2017, 9 (02) :378-400
[4]   Variation in stand mortality related to successional composition [J].
Caspersen, JP .
FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT, 2004, 200 (1-3) :149-160
[5]  
Chen D., 2021, Guangxi For. Sci, V50, P8
[6]   Assessing and modelling the status and dynamics of deadwood through national forest inventory data in Spain [J].
Crecente-Campo, F. ;
Pasalodos-Tato, M. ;
Alberdi, I. ;
Hernandez, L. ;
Ibanez, J. J. ;
Canellas, I. .
FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT, 2016, 360 :297-310
[7]   Estimating cavity tree and snag abundance using negative binomial regression models and nearest neighbor imputation methods [J].
Eskelson, Bianca N. I. ;
Temesgen, Hailemariam ;
Barrett, Tara M. .
CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH, 2009, 39 (09) :1749-1765
[8]   Self-thinning tree mortality models that account for vertical stand structure, species mixing and climate [J].
Forrester, David, I ;
Baker, Thomas G. ;
Elms, Stephen R. ;
Hobi, Martina L. ;
Ouyang, Shuai ;
Wiedemann, John C. ;
Xiang, Wenhua ;
Zell, Jurgen ;
Pulkkinen, Minna .
FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT, 2021, 487
[9]  
Gong Y., 2023, J. Zhejiang A&F Univ, V40, P1282
[10]   Comparison of six generalized linear models for occurrence of lightning-induced fires in northern Daxing'an Mountains, China [J].
Guo, Futao ;
Wang, Guangyu ;
Innes, John L. ;
Ma, Zhihai ;
Liu, Aiqin ;
Lin, Yurui .
JOURNAL OF FORESTRY RESEARCH, 2016, 27 (02) :379-388