The Relevance of Homicide Rate Convergence to Public Policy in the United States

Many studies have explored the association between the homicide rate and transitory economic conditions. This study emphasizes the long term trends - convergence of homicide rates towards the national average. Using statewide annual homicide -rate data obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) over the past half -century (1968-2019), our model estimates provide evidence of convergence of homicide rates toward the national average in the contiguous United States. The speed of convergence seems to be highest in the West, followed by the Midwest, and the South, but no statistically significant evidence of convergence is found in the Northeast. The findings have important policy implications for homicide intervention in the United States.