Sustained depression of B cell counts in lupus nephritis after treatment with rituximab and/or belimumab is associated with fewer disease flares

Objective: To study the risk of lupus nephritis flare (LNF) or severe lupus flare (SLF) as a function of B cell count kinetics in lupus nephritis (LN) patients after they achieve at least a partial renal response (PRR) with induction treatment that includes rituximab (RTX) and/or belimumab (BLM). Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of a cohort of 19 patients with severe LN that received a B cell agent (BCA), RTX and/or BLM, as part of an initial treatment regimen for an LN flare and had subsequent CD19+ B cell measurements in peripheral blood. We then characterized the follow-up periods, after B cell depressions occurred and PRR were achieved, by the corresponding trajectories of B cell counts (BCC). Time periods with sustained low BCC were type 1 (T1) episodes, while those with repletion of BCC>100 cells/mu L were called type 2 (T2) episodes. Time periods with rapid BCC repletion, defined as >50 cells/mu L in <= 6 months, were called T2b episodes. Corresponding C3, C4, and anti-dsDNA levels were recorded for each episode. The time from PRR until an event, either a LNF or SLF, or to censoring, either at the end of the study period or the end of available patient follow-up, was assessed for each episode type. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to compare time to flare between T1 and T2 episodes. Results: There were 26 episodes of B cell depression. Seventeen (65%) were T1 and 9 (35%) were T2. Compared to T1 episodes, T2 episodes were 9.0 times more likely to result in flare over the follow-up period (hazard ratio (HR) = 9.0, 95% CI for HR = 2.2-36.7); this risk was even larger for T2b vs T1 episodes. Median BCC was 14 cells/mu L in T1 and 160 cells/mu L in T2 episodes. Both C3 and C4 levels significantly increased over the duration of the episode in T1 episodes only. Conclusion: Sustained low BCC was associated with prolonged serologic and clinical response, whereas repletion, and particularly rapid repletion, of B cells after treatment with BCA was associated with subsequent disease flare.