An Islamist disadvantage? Revisiting electoral outcomes for Islamists in the Middle East

In this article, we interrogate the extent to which a so-called Islamist advantage existed prior to the Arab Spring by examining country cases often neglected in the literature on Sunni Islamism. We then assess the extent to which the presumed ‘ft of Islamist fortunes post-Arab Spring exists (a) solely in the Sunni sphere or extends to independent Shiʿi movements, and (b) is present in country cases less commonly studied: Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, and Lebanon. We find overall that there is no difference in advantage or disadvantage between Sunni and Shiʿi Islamists; what matters more than the moment of the Arab Spring for understanding the future of Islamism writ large is inclusion of country case studies that are often neglected, like those of Iraq and Lebanon, which complicate assumptions made about Islamists in electoral politics in the Arab world and add nuance to the argument over the existence of an Islamist advantage. © 2024 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.