Circadian serum progesterone variations on the day of frozen embryo transfer in a modified natural cycle protocol

STUDY QUESTION: Is there a circadian variation of serum progesterone (P) on the day of frozen embryo transfer (FET) in a modified natural cycle (mNC)? SUMMARY ANSWER: There is a statistically significant diurnal variation of serum P on the day of a FET in an mNC protocol. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: In recent years, the proportion of FET cycles has increased dramatically. To further optimize pregnancy outcomes after FET, recent studies have focused on serum luteal P levels in both natural and artificially prepared FET cycles. Despite the different cut-off values proposed to define low serum P in the NC, it is generally accepted that lower serum P values (<10 ng/ml) around the day of FET are associated with negative reproductive outcomes. However, a single serum P measurement is not reliable given that P levels are prone to diurnal fluctuations and are impacted by patients' characteristics. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A prospective cohort study was conducted in a single university-affiliated fertility center, including 22 patients performing a single blastocyst mNC-FET from August 2022 to August 2023. Serum P levels were measured on the day of transfer at 08:00h, 12:00h, 16:00h, and 20:00h. Differences between P levels were compared using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. The sample size was calculated to detect a difference of 15% between the first and last P measurements with a 5% false-positive rate and a 95% CI. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Patients with a normal BMI, between 18 and 40 years old, without uterine diseases were eligible. Patients utilizing donated oocytes were excluded. The mNC-FET protocol involved monitoring the normal ovarian cycle and triggering ovulation with an injection of 250 mu g of choriogonadotropin alfa when a pre-ovulatory follicle (16-20 mm diameter) was visualized. The blastocyst was transferred seven days later. The patients were not supplemented with exogenous P at any time before the day of the FET. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: The mean age and BMI of the study population were 33.6 +/- 3.8 years and 22.7 +/- 1.8 kg/m(2), respectively. Mean P values at 08:00h, 12:00h, 16:00h, and 20:00h were 14.6 +/- 4.5, 14.7 +/- 4.1, 12.9 +/- 3.5, and 14.6 +/- 4.3 ng/ml, respectively. The mean P levels at 16:00h were significantly lower compared to all other time points (P < 0.05: P = 0.007 between P at 8:00h and 16:00h; P = 0.003 between P at 12:00h and 16:00h; P = 0.007 between P at 16:00h and 20:00h). No statistically significant difference was observed between P values at the other time points (P > 0.05: P = 0.88 between P at 8:00h and 12:00h; P = 0.96 between P at 8:00h and 20:00h; P = 0.83 between P at 12:00h and 20:00h). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The study's limitations include the small sample size that may cause a bias when the results are extrapolated to a larger subfertile population undergoing mNC-FET. Ideally, larger prospective trials including a more heterogeneous patient population would be necessary to validate our findings. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: The current study demonstrates the existence of a diurnal fluctuation of serum P on the day of mNC-FET highlighting the importance of a standardized time point for its measurement. This is especially important for considering clinical actions, such as additional exogenous P supplementation, when encountering P values lower than 10 ng/ml on the day of FET.