Optimizing Insulated-Gate Bipolar Transistors' Lifetime Estimation: A Critical Evaluation of Lifetime Model Adjustments Based on Power Cycling Tests

This paper presents a detailed refinement and validation of two well-known lifetime prediction models for IGBTs, namely CIPS08 and SKiM63, using experimental power cycling test data. This study focuses on adapting these models to reflect the operational conditions and degradation patterns to more accurately fit different IGBT types and applications. Key modifications include recalibrating the scale factor and temperature coefficients in the SKiM63 model and refining the CIPS08 model coefficients (beta 1 = -2.910, beta 2 = 1083.714, beta 3 = -4.521) based on the impact of temperature fluctuations, bond wire diameter, and electrical stresses observed during power cycling tests. These adjustments provide a significant shift from traditional values, with the recalibrated models offering a better fit, as evidenced by a reasonable coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE). Utilizing Monte Carlo simulations with a 5% uncertainty, the study calculates the B10 lifetimes of PV inverters, demonstrating a substantial reduction from 43 years in the unmodified model to 13 years in the modified model. This emphasizes the critical need for ongoing modification and validation of predictive models based on the actual operational data to enhance the reliability and efficiency of IGBTs in power electronic systems.