LARGE DEMOGRAPHIC SHOCKS AND SMALL CHANGES IN THE MARRIAGE MARKET

Between 1958 and 1961, China experienced a drastic famine. The famine substantially reduced birth rates and also adversely affected the health of these famine-born cohorts. This paper provides nonparametric estimates of the total effects of the famine on the marital behavior of famine-affected cohorts in rural Sichuan and Anhui. These reduced-form estimates incorporate general equilibrium and heterogeneous treatment effects. The paper uses the Choo-Siow model to decompose observed marital outcomes into quantity and quality effects. A decline in marital attractiveness of famine-affected cohorts, which is correlated with an increase in marital childlessness, provides support for the external validity of the Choo-Siow decomposition. The small observed changes in marriage rates of the famine-born cohorts are due to a substantial decline in their marital attractiveness.