flepiMoP : The evolution of a flexible infectious disease modeling pipeline during the COVID-19 pandemic

被引:1
|
作者
Lemaitre, Joseph C. [1 ]
Loo, Sara L. [2 ]
Kaminsky, Joshua [3 ]
Lee, Elizabeth C. [3 ]
McKee, Clifton [3 ]
Smith, Claire [3 ]
Jung, Sung-mok [4 ]
Sato, Koji [2 ]
Carcelen, Erica [2 ]
Hill, Alison [5 ]
Lessler, Justin [1 ,3 ,4 ]
Truelove, Shaun [2 ,3 ]
机构
[1] Univ North Carolina Chapel Hill, Gillings Sch Global Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA
[2] Johns Hopkins Univ, Int Vaccine Access Ctr, Dept Int Hlth, Baltimore, MD USA
[3] Johns Hopkins Bloomberg Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Baltimore, MD USA
[4] Univ North Carolina Chapel Hill, Carolina Populat Ctr, Chapel Hill, NC USA
[5] Johns Hopkins Univ, Inst Computat Med, Baltimore, MD USA
基金
美国国家卫生研究院; 美国国家科学基金会; 瑞士国家科学基金会;
关键词
COVID-19; Influenza; Respiratory syncytial virus; Compartmental model; Forecasting; Scenario Planning; Pipeline; Open-source Software; STATES;
D O I
10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100753
中图分类号
R51 [传染病];
学科分类号
100401 ;
摘要
The COVID-19 pandemic led to an unprecedented demand for projections of disease burden and healthcare utilization under scenarios ranging from unmitigated spread to strict social distancing policies. In response, members of the Johns Hopkins Infectious Disease Dynamics Group developed flepiMoP (formerly called the COVID Scenario Modeling Pipeline ), a comprehensive open-source software pipeline designed for creating and simulating compartmental models of infectious disease transmission and inferring parameters through these models. The framework has been used extensively to produce short-term forecasts and longer-term scenario projections of COVID-19 at the state and county level in the US, for COVID-19 in other countries at various geographic scales, and more recently for seasonal influenza. In this paper, we highlight how the flepiMoP has evolved throughout the COVID-19 pandemic to address changing epidemiological dynamics, new interventions, and shifts in policy-relevant model outputs. As the framework has reached a mature state, we provide a detailed overview of flepiMoP ' s key features and remaining limitations, thereby distributing flepiMoP and its documentation as a flexible and powerful tool for researchers and public health professionals to rapidly build and deploy large-scale complex infectious disease models for any pathogen and demographic setup.
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页数:11
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