Political crisis and social trust: the case of Australia

Trust in Australian political institutions has declined markedly since 2007. Trust scholars and social capital theorists argue that institutional trust affects social trust, which implies that declining trust in political institutions should also reduce social trust. However, using data from the Australian Election Study, World Values Survey and HILDA panel study, I find no evidence of any aggregate-level decline in Australian social trust since 2007. While this could be a result of the 'coup era' in Australian politics from 2010 to 2018, a better explanation is that social trust remained high because permanent changes in trust occur primarily among younger people. A long-term decline through generational replacement therefore remains possible. This challenges both social capital theory and institutional theories of social trust, but would explain the experiences of other advanced democracies during episodes of political crisis, including New Zealand, Greece, Finland, Japan, Sweden, Spain and the United States.