Analysis of the Cost of Retraining Workers Employed in the Fossil Fuel Energy Industries for Jobs in Low-Carbon Energy Industries: A Case Study in Wyoming

In the United States, coal, natural gas, and oil stand as primary contributors to carbon emissions. The transition toward carbon-free energy sources has significantly reduced the demand for conventional fossil fuels while also significantly altering its labor market environment. This concurrently opens a good number of job prospects in low-carbon energy production sectors. Consequently, navigating this labor force transition requires informed decisions. This research aims to explore the economic impacts of this transition using the state of Wyoming as a case study, a state at the forefront of moving from fossil fuel reliance to embracing low-carbon energy sources. Through an in-depth analysis, including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling, this paper explored the retraining needs of workers in each sector, the associated costs, and the current state of Wyoming's workforce. The results of the analysis showed that the coal mine sector and oil and gas industries face significant workforce migration pressures with a relatively higher number of workers who need to be migrated, whereas coal power plants are less affected. With Wyoming found to be at the "take-off" phase, ready to accelerate into a new energy paradigm, a relatively modest investment ranging from $3,060 to $7,201, per worker, can facilitate this transition. This research provides critical insights into managing workforce transitions, informing strategic decisions for a sustainable shift from fossil fuels energy production to low-carbon energy production. This research could assist government agencies in the establishment of workforce transition initiatives in the energy production industries and beyond. This research potentially offers a practical framework for understanding the intricacies of workforce transitioning that could be utilized for other sectors such as the architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) sector.