Jump-Starting the Euro-Area Recovery: Would a Rise in Core Fiscal Spending Help the Periphery?

被引:40
作者
Blanchard, Olivier [1 ,2 ]
Erceg, Christopher J. [3 ]
Linde, Jesper [4 ,5 ]
机构
[1] Peterson Inst Int Econ, Washington, DC 20036 USA
[2] NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA
[3] Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC USA
[4] Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm, Sweden
[5] Stockholm Sch Econ, Stockholm, Sweden
关键词
NOMINAL RIGIDITIES; OPTIMAL MONETARY; STICKY PRICES; POLICY; MULTIPLIER; MODEL; US; INFORMATION; INFLATION; STIMULUS;
D O I
10.1086/690240
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
We show that a fiscal expansion by the core economies of the euro area would have a large and positive impact on periphery GDP assuming that policy rates remain low for a prolonged period. Under our preferred model specification, an expansion of core government spending equal to 1% of euro-area GDP would boost periphery GDP by over 1%in a liquidity trap lasting three years, nearly half as large as the effect oncore GDP. Accordingly, under a standard ad hoc loss function involving output and inflation gaps, increasing core spending would generate substantial welfare improvements, especially in the periphery. The benefits are considerably smaller under a utility-based welfare measure, reflecting in part that higher net exports play a material role in raising periphery GDP.
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页码:103 / 182
页数:80
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