The Impact of Agricultural Socialized Service on Grain Production: Evidence from Rural China

Although China's grain production has reached nineteen consecutive harvests, the uncertainty of the current domestic and international environment has put more pressure on further increasing grain production in the future. For the past few years, agricultural socialization services have been crucial in boosting grain production and farmers' revenue by addressing the issue of land cultivation and farming methods. In this regard, the question of whether and how agricultural socialized services may resolve the present grain production conundrum is extremely practical. Therefore, the study employs the China Rural Revitalization Survey data of 3709 households. Based on the 2SLS model, stepwise regression method, and moderated effects model, it creatively takes into account a variety of agricultural production segments, investigates the mechanism of services on grain production from the standpoint of improved production efficiency and plot concentration, and further examines the effects of aging populations and regional variations in grain production areas. The study found the following: (1) The average proportion of grain production area of farmers in the sample is 49%, and 42% of farmers have purchased agricultural socialization services. (2) Agricultural socialization services can significantly promote farmers' grain cultivation behavior by facilitating connected transfers in and inhibiting connected transfers out to take advantage of plot concentration, and boosting the use of agricultural machines to enhance output efficiency. (3) The aging of the agricultural population will, to a certain extent, strengthen the promoting effect of agricultural socialization services on grain cultivation. Agricultural socialization services affect grain cultivation more in main grain-producing areas. Therefore, emphasizing the role of agricultural socialization services in accelerating the shift to moderate-scale operations, decreasing the non-grain component of the planting structure, and promoting the implementation of policies tailored to actual production needs are important steps to safeguard the production capacity of grain in different regions.