MODELING OF UNCERTAINTY OF CONNECTION ARRIVAL USING FUZZY NUMBERS

The problem of planning in public bus transport is to arrange a given set of connections for a minimum number of rounds, which meet several additional restrictions. The planning of the arrival of the connection at a time of increasing traffic density is influenced by many factors, which can be classified into the category of random events. Random phenomena bring with them a degree of uncertainty that can be quantified using fuzzy numbers. In this paper, we present the theoretical basis of the application of fuzzy numbers in estimating the arrival of a connection, considering random variables that may affect the time required to implement the connection. We assume that considering the random factor when planning bus connections will contribute to optimizing the load on drivers and vehicles in the form of proportional load distribution.