Synergistic impact of climate and land use land cover change dynamics on the hydrological regime of Loktak Lake catchment under CMIP6 scenarios

Study region: Loktak Lake catchment, north-eastern Himalayan ranges, India Study focus: Assessing the potential synergistic impact of land use land cover (LULC) and climate change on water resources is crucial for watershed management especially in the datascarce vulnerable wetlands. Using the SWAT hydrological model, the current study seeks to quantify the combined impacts of LULC and climate change on the water balance parameters of the Loktak Lake catchment. This study simulates the hydrological regime of the Loktak Lake catchment based on future climate and changes to LULC dynamics using four GCM models in combination with SWAT models under two alternative scenarios. New hydrological insights for the region: The findings showed that under the SSP 126 and SSP 585 scenarios, the annual mean temperature is anticipated to increase by a maximum of 1.7 degrees C and 3.74 degrees C, respectively, by the 2050 s and 2090 s, while the annual precipitation similarly shown a rising trend for both the scenarios for the mid and far future. The mean annual streamflow is projected to increase by 48.84 cumecs (31.65 %) and 57 cumecs (36.89 %) by the 2050 s and 2090 s decades, respectively, while the water yield will rise by 200.65 mm (30.25 %) and 216.1 mm (32.57 %) in comparable decades. The outcomes of this study might provide a scientific foundation for ecological protection as well as water resource management and development in response to the potential future risk due to climate change in the Loktak Lake catchment.