Diabetes subgroups and sociodemographic inequalities in Mexico: a cross-sectional analysis of nationally representative surveys from 2016 to 2022

Background Differences in the prevalence of four diabetes subgroups have been reported in Mexico compared to other populations, but factors that may contribute to these differences are poorly understood. Here, we estimate the prevalence of diabetes subgroups in Mexico and evaluate their correlates with indicators of social disadvantage using data from national representative surveys. Methods We analyzed serial, cross-sectional Mexican National Health and Nutrition Surveys spanning 2016, 2018, 2020, 2021, and 2022, including 23,354 adults (>20 years). Diabetes subgroups (obesity-related [MOD], severe insulin-deficient [SIDD], severe insulin-resistant [SIRD], and age-related [MARD]) were classified using self-normalizing neural networks based on a previously validated algorithm. We used the density-independent social lag index (DISLI) as a proxy of state-level social disadvantage. Findings We identified 4204 adults (median age: 57, IQR: 47-66, women: 64%) living with diabetes, yielding a pooled prevalence of 16.04% [95% CI: 14.92-17.17]. When stratified by diabetes subgroup, prevalence was 6.62% (5.69-7.55) for SIDD, 5.25% (4.52-5.97) for MOD, 2.39% (1.95-2.83) for MARD, and 1.27% (1.00-1.54) for SIRD. SIDD and MOD clustered in Southern Mexico, whereas MARD and SIRD clustered in Northern Mexico and Mexico City. Each standard deviation increase in DISLI was associated with higher odds of SIDD (OR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.06-1.12) and lower odds of MOD (OR: 0.93, 0.88-0.99). Speaking an indigenous language was associated with higher odds of SIDD (OR: 1.35, 1.16-1.57) and lower odds of MARD (OR 0.58, 0.45-0.74). Interpretation Diabetes prevalence in Mexico is rising in the context of regional and sociodemographic inequalities across distinct diabetes subgroups. SIDD is a subgroup of concern that may be associated with inadequate diabetes management, mainly in marginalized states.