Bayesian Inference with Complex Knowledge Graph Evidence

Knowledge Graphs (KGs) provide a widely used format for representing entities and their relationships and have found use in diverse applications including question answering and recommendation. A majority of current research on KG inference has focused on reasoning with atomic facts (triples) and has disregarded the possibility of making complex evidential observations involving logical operators (negation, conjunction, disjunction) and quantifiers (existential, universal). Further, while the application of complex evidence has been explored in KG-based query answering (KGQA) research, in many practical online settings, observations are made sequentially. For example, in KGQA, additional context may be incrementally suggested to narrow down the answer. Or in interactive recommendation, user critiques may be expressed sequentially in order to narrow down a set of preferred items. Both settings are indicative of information filtering or tracking tasks that are reminiscent of belief tracking in Bayesian inference. In fact, in this paper, we precisely cast the problem of belief tracking over unknown KG entities given incremental complex KG evidence as a Bayesian filtering problem. Specifically, we leverage Knowledge-based Model Construction (KBMC) over the logical KG evidence to instantiate a Markov Random Field (MRF) likelihood representation to perform closed-form Bayesian inference with complex KG evidence (BIKG). We experimentally evaluate BIKG in incremental KGQA and interactive recommendation tasks demonstrating that it outperforms non-incremental methodologies and leads to better incorporation of conjunctive evidence vs. existing complex KGQA methods like CQD that leverage fuzzy T-norm operators. Overall, this work demonstrates a novel, efficient, and unified perspective of logic, KGs, and online inference through the lens of closed-form BIKG.